2025 U.S. Real Estate Market Midyear Check-In: What Investors Should Know

As we enter the latter half of 2025, the U.S. real estate landscape is showing signs of resilience amid macro headwinds. CBRE’s midyear review underscores that while economic and geopolitical uncertainty remain key challenges, opportunities continue to emerge—especially for savvy international investors.

At GRIT, we closely monitor these trends because they inform how we guide clients into U.S. property markets with confidence. Below is a summary of CBRE’s key findings, plus what we see as actionable insights for property buyers from abroad.

1. Market Fundamentals Hold Their Ground

Despite volatility in global trade and shifting fiscal policies, core real estate fundamentals remain stable. CBRE notes that:

Investment activity is forecast to grow ~10% in 2025, reaching an estimated $437 billion in commercial real estate transactions.
Cap rates, which rose during the interest rate compression cycle, may begin a gradual easing, particularly for prime assets.
The recently passed U.S. tax and spending legislation continues to support favorable tax treatment for real estate, reinforcing investor confidence.

GRIT takeaway: For international buyers, this means entering the market now gives you access to acquisitions at or near cyclical peaks — while potential upside remains as cap rates stabilize and compress.

2. Sector Outlook: Where Growth and Stability Intersect

CBRE breaks its forecasts down across real estate sectors. A few highlights:

Sector	CBRE View	Key Points for Investors
Office / Occupier	A bifurcated market: prime assets in gateway metros remain resilient.	Focus on premium, well-located office properties in top-tier markets. Non-prime or fringe locations carry more risk.
Industrial / Logistics	Flight-to-quality continues: older, less efficient assets face outflows.	Target new logistics or warehouse properties in supply-constrained corridors near major trade routes.
Retail	Limited new supply; high-performing centers in dense markets are outperforming.	Retail investments near dense population nodes or transportation hubs hold appeal.
Multifamily	Stabilizing in H1 2025, though rent growth forecasts are moderated.	In high-demand urban/suburban areas, multifamily remains a tried-and-true play—especially for residential investors.
Data Centers	Very strong demand; supply constrained by infrastructure and power timelines.	If you’re comfortable with tech infrastructure investments, data centers can offer robust returns with less vacancy risk.

GRIT insight: For most investor clients we work with (residential / smaller commercial), multifamily and well-located urban office or retail properties in gateway markets remain the “sweet spot” given demand, liquidity, and exit flexibility.

3. Macroeconomics & Capital Constraints

One of the most significant headwinds noted in CBRE’s midyear update is the upward pressure on borrowing costs and the volatility in long-term interest rates. Some key points:

CBRE lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, citing trade policy risks and business confidence headwinds.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to hover near 4.3%, a drag on financing conditions and valuation metrics.
Despite that, strong deals continue to close, reflecting that many buyers and investors are seeing value in strategic market entry during this period.

GRIT’s approach: We pair conservative underwriting with stress-testing for interest rates. Our clients only move forward when projected cash flows and yields remain robust even under rate-up scenarios.

4. What This Means for International / Foreign Buyers

From our vantage point, the CBRE midyear review reinforces several compelling reasons for international investors to consider U.S. real estate now:

Relative stability — The U.S. remains a comparatively stable investment haven amidst global uncertainty.
Opportunistic entry points — As capital markets cycle, some well-positioned assets may be available at discounts, especially in non-core segments.
Tax & regulatory tailwinds — The recent U.S. legislation continues to favor real estate ownership and investment.
Strong global demand — Many international investors eye U.S. real estate for portfolio diversification and yield.
Liquidity in major markets — Gateway and core metro markets (NYC, Miami, etc.) still offer relatively high liquidity and exit options.

5. Recommendations & Strategy for Cross-Border Investors

Here’s how we at GRIT plan to help you navigate this evolving landscape:

Focus on prime & core assets in top-tier metros — with built-in demand, liquidity, and resilience.
Stress-test all deals under rising rate assumptions, vacancy stress, and conservative rent growth.
Seek deals with value-add potential where you can reposition or modernize.
Structure your ownership and financing wisely — use LLCs, hedge instruments, and local banking relationships.
Stay nimble — be ready to act quickly when capital or property windows open.
Partner with local expertise — from attorneys, property managers, tax advisors, to developers; GRIT’s on-the-ground U.S. network is an essential advantage.

Final Thoughts

CBRE’s midyear review is a helpful reminder that real estate continues to be a long-term game — one that rewards prudence, insight, and timing. While uncertainty remains, the fundamentals haven’t broken, and pockets of opportunity remain for bold, well-prepared investors. (Source cbre.com)

At GRIT, we’re committed to giving our clients access, clarity, and execution support in U.S. markets. If you’re interested in exploring U.S. property investments—especially in New York or premium markets—reach out. Let’s build something real, resilient, and rewarding together.

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